MLB Home Run Picks Today

How Rude Bets ranks today's MLB home run picks

Every morning we project home run probability for every MLB batter in tonight's starting lineup. The ranked list above shows today's top HR candidates — these are the hitters our model flags as having the highest odds to hit a home run based on a combination of matchup, environment, and form signals.

Home run prop bets are one of the highest-upside, highest-variance wagers in MLB betting. A smart HR pick isn't just "a guy who hits a lot of home runs" — it's a hitter whose underlying skill profile aligns with the specific matchup tonight: the right pitcher hand, a favorable park, supportive weather, and trending batted-ball quality. That's what we try to surface.

Today's top HR picks — what to look for

• Matchup edge. A left-handed power bat facing a right-handed pitcher with platoon splits that favor hitters is a textbook HR-prop setup. Our leaderboard sorts these to the top.
• Park factor. Home run rates vary dramatically by stadium. Hitter-friendly parks in Cincinnati, Colorado, and New York can add +15% to +30% to a player's expected HR rate on any given night.
• Weather. Hot, humid conditions with outbound wind can add carry to fly balls. Cold air and inbound wind will suppress home runs regardless of the hitter's quality.
• Recent form. Players riding hot streaks (elevated barrel%, above-average exit velocity) tend to keep producing in the short term.

Updated throughout the day

Rankings refresh every morning before first pitch, and again after lineup confirmations land in the afternoon. If a projected starter gets scratched or a lineup card changes, the projections above reflect the update. We also refresh mid-game day as weather forecasts sharpen — because a 5 mph change in wind speed can swing HR expectation meaningfully for an outdoor game.

Want to understand the methodology?

Read our overview of how we project MLB home runs — the core inputs, why home-run modeling is hard, and what separates a sharp HR prop from a coin flip.